New Journal Hopes to Buy a Clue

The National Defense University just launched a new, quarterly foreign policy/defense journal. Called the PRISM, it says it is:

tailored to serve policy-makers, scholars and practitioners working to enhance U.S. Government competency in complex operations by exploring whole-of-community approaches among U.S. Government agencies, academic institutions, international governments and militaries, non-governmental organizations and other participants in the complex operations space. PRISM is chartered by the Center for Complex Operations (CCO) and it welcomes articles on a broad range of complex operations issues, especially those that focus on the nexus of civil-military integration.

Hans Binnendijk and Patrick M. Cronin in the Journal's introductory article, Through the Complex Operations Prism explains the journal's mission:

It has been over 12 years since the Bill Clinton administration released Presidential Decision Directive (PDD) 56, “Managing Complex Contingency Operations.” PDD 56 was issued in May 1997 to direct the institutionalization within the executive branch of lessons learned from such complex operations as Panama, Somalia, Haiti, and Bosnia. Our recent frustrations in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention the deaths of over 5,000 American soldiers and civilians, and multiple trillions of dollars in war-related costs have caused us once again to scrutinize the failures of our approach to complex operations and to reapply ourselves to a better understanding of those operations and the environments they are meant to address.

In the spirit of neo-cons admitting that they have failed, which appears to be the real theme of the journal, the first issue features an interview with former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. It also appears to be the only article that anyone in DC has read.  Tom Ricks gently lists the highlights in his blog.

By "gently,"I mean he simply lists, but does not comment on, some of Armitage's surprising slaps at the Bush Administration including that there did not seem to be any real presidential consultation to invade Iraq. Ricks also does not note that Armitage admitted to failing to understand soon enough that there was a difference between the fight in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Armitage also does not have much use for female leadership and was delighted when folks told him that the "Rice years were terrible." He felt she failed to develop that military espirt de corps that Powell did; and he did not think that Hillary Clinton could either. You know, the girls were not "inculcated" with this.

Maybe someone should tell Armitage that the new president of the National Defense University is Vice Admiral Ann E. Rondeau, USN, who assumed duties as the 13th President of from Lieutenant General Frances C. Wilson, USMC, on July 10, 2009. Probably, those girls know a thing or two about espirt de corps.

Troubled Waters

Japan's new government is on a tear to redo the so-called U.S.-Japan Alliance. It is first trying to figure out how a security arrangement became an alliance. Next it is trying to discern why so many U.S. troops remain in so many former Imperial Army and Navy bases.

Most important, the Hatoyama government is discovering that a handful of essentially self-selected elites in Japan and the United States, nurtured by Japanese funding, have charted the course and character of the Alliance for over 2o years.

Last week's AEI presentation on "Troubled Waters for the U.S.-Japan Alliance" gave the audience a glimpse into this rarified world of Pacific strategists and Alliance Managers.

After reading, not paraphrasing, from his paper on the Looming Crisis in U.S.-Japan Relations and listening to Professor Kent Calder criticize the inability of a small group of elites to broaden the security dialogue, Dr. Patrick Cronin was in a defensive mood. As an "alliance manager" he respected the results of these men. He had just moved from a U.S. government research center to the Center for a New American Security, which had been founded by his friend, fellow Alliance Manager, and now Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Kurt Campbell. In the "private" sector he would have more time to write and to participate with little scrutiny in Alliance building meetings.

Cronin blithely jumped into the discussion after the presentations with a defense of the Alliance Managers. The Alliance he felt had been "tremendously successful," but he admited that it is in need of "a much wider public support base in Japan":

It [the Alliance] has been indeed managed by elites. I know I have had privileged conversations whether at the onsen or up in the mountains of Aspen with future prime ministers, defense ministers. And there is no doubt there has been a very candid exchange of views. There has been a very deep exchange of views on the most serious and sensitive issues. No doubt that takes place. [See 36.24 of the video of the event posted on the AEI website.]

Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs James Shinn was so bemused, that he interupted Cronin to ask if there were onsen in Aspen.

So there you have it: naked men with deep views at tony resorts conjured up America's lynchpin Alliance.

This is good to know, but I am still having a very hard time getting a picture of Patrick Cronin, James Kelley, Shinzo Abe, and Hisahiko Okazaki soaking together buck-naked in an onsen discussing Japan's potential defense posture out of my head...it is not pretty. Not exactly the U.S. Men's water polo team.

After Dr. Cronin's comment, my intern whispered: What is an onsen?

Myself: A bath, a hot spring, usually outdoors.

Intern: I assume they have towels.

Myself: Very small towels.

Prime Minister’s Schedule

One of the fun things to read is the Prime Minister’s schedule. You learn who he met with and for how long. You can check if he took his morning “walk around his residence” and how late he stayed out with his secretary who he met at a hotel bar.

I read this in English and am not really sure where it is published in Japan (newspapers, I am told). And yes, I live such amazingly unexceptional and isolated life that I look forward to finding out what Mr. Aso did the previous day.

Of recent interest, I noticed that Mr. Aso met but again with Michael Green, the Japan Chair at the conservative Washington think tank CSIS. On March 2nd, the Prime Minister held a meeting with Central Japan Railway Co. Chairman Yoshiyuki Kasai, Confederation of Indian Industry Chief Mentor Tarun Das (I have no idea what that title means), and Mike Green to discuss their recent U.S.-Japan-India Trilateral Strategic Dialogue gathering. (the link takes you to a three and a half page summary of the two years of discussions)

Fund it and they will come. 

Speaking of tying up a lot of people with lots of money to travel to exotic places to merely discuss the “big picture,” the name Patrick Cronin comes up again. To any one of you who disparaged Dr. Cronin’s close ties with Prime Minister Taro Aso, you should have read the PM’s daily schedule for November 25, 2008. The defense think tank head not only had lunch with the PM but later went out with him for drinks at a hotel bar. That is serious facetime. On January 15th, the Mainichi Shimbun reported that this meeting was to persuade the PM to commit more resources to Afghanistan as this was to be a priority of President-elect Obama. Cronin, the paper said, is close to Defense Secretary Gates. That is serious newspaper exposure.

It is nice to see all these Republicans taking the time to advise Mr. Aso on what the Obama Administration wants. There is a vacuum after all. Anyway, there seems little difference between Bush and Obama people or policies on Japan. I have to admit I do not recall any Democrats visiting Kantei. But maybe I have not been paying attention.

Updated: later March 22, 2009

Undermining Market Confidence

This evening, Kurt Campbell and his Center for a New American Security held a big briefing and small reception in the Willard Hotel to introduce his "bi-partisan" report on why Obama should rely on the same men who advised George Bush on Asia. The US and the Asia-Pacific Region: Security Strategy for the Obama Administration is the collective wisdom of five Washington think tanks, of which three are DoD affiliates and taxpayer funded.

But this is not the blog post to discuss the report, which was out-dated on delivery because of the global economic crisis. Anyway, far more witty and knowledgeable bloggers will do that.

Instead I want to relate to you a story of regional cooperation told at the briefing by Dr. Patrick Cronin, director of the Institute for National Security Studies at the National Defense University.

Dr. Cronin talking about, I think, how economics was bringing Asians together, used a quintessential Washington-point-making strategy (if you are keeping score), he noted a conversation he had with MR. TARO ASO THE PRIME MINISTER OF JAPAN AT DAVOS. Gosh, an unlikely foreign leader talking to an obscure think tanker at an important conference. I almost did not listen to the story I was so overwhelmed.

"Cronin-san," TARO ASO said.

"You would not believe what just happened. I was with Chinese President Hu Jin-tao. He saw me and grabbed two chairs and asked me to come sit and talk with him. He told me about how important it was to cooperate on economic issues and asked me to discuss with him the economy. And he sat there and took notes while I talked.

Never would I have believed that the President of China would sit and listen to a Japanese prime minister."

Now, I am not sure if I got every word correct of Dr. Cronin's anecdote, but the general idea was that Prime Minister Aso, the fresh prince of Tokyo, was explaining economics to the head of the largest country on earth.

Now you know why I could not get near the bar at the reception.