Finally, A Normal Country

For quite a while, Japan's elites have wanted their country to be a "normal" country. They want to be like all the other major powers with a voice in international organizations, money that gets respect, and a legitimate military. They complain that they are not an equal partner with the United States, and say they yearn to be the Great Britain of Asia.

Ok, and so the Obama Administration has begun the process of treating Japan like Great Britain and like a normal nation. It is about to nominate for ambassador to Japan a presidential crony and big money fundraiser--just like the traditional emissaries to the Court of St. James or France or Italy or Bermuda.

Tokyo is now like any other "glamourous" posting. A politically savvy First Friend will guide the "relationship" with parties and chamber of commerce meetings. Out of the hands of a small coterie of managers, American diplomacy with Japan will strive to treat Japan like all the other G-7 countries. No more specially trained diplomats like we send to trouble spots and Third World countries.

Japan has finally arrived, and finally, almost like a second chance, it is the 1950s:

U.S. ambassadors do more than-talk to foreign ministers. They are also public-relations men with a whole nation for a client. They make speeches, inspect public works, judge flower shows, organize charities. They talk to labor leaders, opposition politicians, businessmen. And while they talk, they listen. For the other side of their job is to be the U.S.'s eyes & ears. On their reading of tempers and political moods Washington bases much of its timing and many of its decisions. [Time Magazine, December 1951]

But somehow I don't think that Japan's elites and America's Japan managers are too happy. Exotic Japan cannot be understood by a personable, loyal confidante. There are special circumstances for Japan that allow it to keep out foreign investment, inhibit foreign imports, deny asylum to refugees, continue child porn, refuse to sign the Genocide Convention or the Hague Treaty on child abduction, and allow it to celebrate the lives of its worst war criminals in the middle of its capital. Would an average American understand this?

Again, I do not know how Tokyo is reacting. I can only guess from what the newspapers are saying. And that reaction is tepid and guarded. My one good resource for these sorts of answers "defriended" me six months ago, today. It was a bit like that Burger King promotion: you got a Whopper if you defriended ten of your "friends" from Facebook. In other words, you were worth 1/10 of a fast food hamburger.

Simply bewildering.

And this is probably how MOFA and the rest of Japan's elites feel for not being special any more.

And The White House Doesn't Know Either

Today's White House Press Briefing with Robert Gibbs, the last question:

Q I only have one question.

MR. GIBBS: All right, one more.

Q One question. The U.S. Ambassador to Japan was recently appointed to John Roos, California attorney. What's the background on this?

MR. GIBBS: I'm sorry, say that again? John Roos?

Q John Roos was appointed to Japanese Ambassador. What's the background on this?

MR. GIBBS: Let me get -- we'll get you information on his nomination and his background and experience.

Thanks, guys.

Q Thank you, Robert.

...no, thank yoou...

Later: The question was asked by Ms. Ayumi Hattori. She is TV Asahi's feisty new associate producer. Go Girl.

Yes, I Really Didn't Know

The all knowing source of information Japanese, now knows. 

Chris Nelson of the Nelson Report has confirmed that the ambassador-designate to Japan is California securities lawyer John Roos. Team Armitage members have been whimpering it to him all day. Hmmm.

I still will believe it when the White House issues the nomination announcement. 

It is interesting that this information was kept so secret from Chris. That is unusual. There is indeed a new sheriff in town. 

State says things will operate on the Bush/Schieffer model. There is a difference, however. This time the President is in the loop and knows where Japan is. Both Roos and Obama are lawyers who like to get things done and who understand financial issues. Tokyo has every  reason to be afraid.

The similarity is that Japan's economy is in as bad a shape as it was when Bush's first term began. And again, it is likely to provide Tokyo the security to say no, a lot. We forget how obstreperous Japan's leaders were before 9/11 and how little the Japan managers knew about economics. 

Talking about being afraid, Sentaku reported in its May issue that Aso may appoint Shinzo Abe as foreign minister before the election. The article's author describes Abe's political reemergence with provocative quotes and says he "took" Seiji Maehara to Washington earlier this year. A lot of money is going toward Abe's comeback. 

I Really Don't Know, OK

David R. Andrews. OK! Now leave me alone.

I have been pestered with a steady stream of questions as to who will be the next U.S. ambassador to Japan. I have no idea, really.

However, I questioned those who questioned me. This process yielded a number of clues which pointed to Mr. Andrews the retired PP&E Senior Vice President, Government Affairs, General Counsel, and Secretary of PepsiCo, Inc. (food and beverage businesses). 

Prior to joining PepsiCo, Inc., Mr. Andrews was a partner in the law firm of McCutchen, Doyle, Brown & Enersen, LLP from May 2000 to January 2002 and from 1981 to July 1997. From August 1997 to April 2000, he served as the legal advisor to the U.S. Department of State and former Secretary Madeleine Albright. Mr. Andrews has been a director of PG&E Corporation and Pacific Gas and Electric Company since 2000. 

He is also on the board of the Asia Foundation, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Pacific Council on International Policy. He was a member of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague and is a member of the American Arbitration Association National Roster of Arbitrators and Mediators. Mr. Andrews is also a member of the American Law Institute and was a member of the ABA Standing Committee on Environmental Law and the Governing Council of the ABA Section on International Law. Mr. Andrews serves on the advisory boards of a number of academic institutions including the Environmental and Natural Resources Advisory Council of Stanford Law School and the National Advisory Board of the Ecology Law Quarterly of Boalt Hall School of Law, University of California, Berkeley.

All that as well as a First Friend. A more interesting clue, is the anxious activity at the Japanese Embassy on a number of issues that have been long shoved to the side. These are issues of  how Japan is "different" and will not change, ever.

Over the past two weeks, there has been surprisingly positive movement on issues of child pornography, child abduction, and even American POWs of Japan. It is almost as if they are rushing to get off the table some uncomfortable business that would defy explanation to a seasoned American lawyer and arbiter who has direct access to the President.

The Japanese press has even joined in the preparation. Both Nikkei and Mainichi have run stories on the American POWs of Japan and their quest for an apology. The articles (one a commentary by Amb Togo) have hinted that a resolution is near. NHK has contacted a number of parents of children abducted to Japan for a TV special. The Japanese media have never given these issues this much attention. To be sure, these issues are being reported sparingly and coverage is limited to a few news outlets.

I can guess with the best. 

Now, I do know the Japanese press is following Asahi's lead that John Roos is the nominee. He is a Silicon Valley securities lawyer and Obama fundraiser. He has a publicist. The Japanese Embassy is their reporter's source. But, this reporter has been wrong before. He has a penchant for believing his "inside" sources and moulding his stories to their interests. (Ouch you say, well too bad, and rumor has it that his job is on the line.)

No matter who is nominated to be U.S. ambassador to Japan,  it is clear that it is not Harvard Professor Joe Nye. Frankly, he was only a serious contender to Team Armitage whose members tirelessly advocated for him. Tokyo is most likely stunned, as there is another unknown ambassador who can bypass the State and Defense Departments. Even worse, he is unlikely to be familiar with the traditional Japan managers and their rationalizations of Japan's, the G-7 country, behavior.

Thus, the only thing I am certain about is that CSIS's Pacific Forum is going to have a hard time fundraising. 

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