Dare Ya

On a day in which all the major Western newspapers reported that Japan’s GNP will fall 3.3 % for the coming fiscal year that began on April 1 and that the economic situation is worsening, Japan’s conservative nationalists spent over US$100,000 for a full-page advocacy ad in the New York Times.

Finance and Economics Minister Kaoru Yasano had told the Diet on April 27^th that the Japanese economy is rapidly deteriorating.  “Our country,” he continued, “is clearly in a situation that can be described as an economic crisis.” He reported that Japan will experience a nominal growth rate of minus 3%. Private analysts say that this is more likely to be a minus 6%. 

The April 28th ad, DO YOU DARE OVERLOOK THE HELL NAMED NORTH KOREA?, challenged President Obama to press for human rights in North Korea so that it can become a truly democratic state.  Signed by a group of seven generally moderate public intellectuals, the ad demands that the President relist North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Reportedly “thousands” of individual Japanese donations helped pay for this ad that appeared in the middle of North Korea Freedom Week and the visit of a delegation from Japan of well-known abduction advocates led by Dietmember Takao Hiranuma and accompanied by Keiji Furuya, Ichiro Tsukada, Jin Matsubara, Masahisa Sato, and Shinkun Haku. 

Representing the families of the abducted is Teruaki Masumoto, Secretary General of the Association of the Families of Victims Kidnapped by North Korea (AFVKN), whose sister, Rumiko, North Korea admitted kidnapping. 

In February, Masumoto participated in a symposium on abduction and national defense in Nagoya hosted by General Toshio Tamogami’s support group. The General, known for his skeptical views of American influence and authority, was the main speaker. Masumoto reportedly said that Japan should use its economic power to pressure the US into relisting North Korea as a terrorist supporter.

And what economic power would that be?

North Korea Freedom Week

Today starts North Korea Freedom Week here in Washington.

For seven days (April 26-May 2), conservative nationalist groups from the US, Japan, and South Korea lay aside their natural animosities toward each other and work together to pressure the US government to pay attention to human rights abuses in North Korea. These are the same folks who ignore human rights issues in their own countries and generally have little use for the concept in foreign policy. It is strange to see these conservatives tossing about an traditionally "liberal" democratic ideal as an appeal to the American foreign policy establishment.

I guess they haven't heard that the State Department is taking a more practical approach to human rights by getting its priorities straight.

Stranger is the Japanese delegation that comes every year. It is unlikely that the Americans involved really know who these politicians and "scholars" are. To a man, they are the very same people who vigorously attacked the members of congress they are now stand beside for their views on Comfort Women and Japan 's history issues. If Takeo Hiranuma ever heard Ed Royce's inspiring words on the universality of the comfort women experience he might have another heart attack.

Left out of their biographies are their memberships in Japan's Parliamentary study groups that advocate for the return of the government led by the Emperor and Shinto, that "prove" the US tricked the Japan into the Pacific War,  and that the Tokyo War Crimes Trial were mere victor's justice. All are members of the ultra-nationalist Japan Conference that seeks to maintain Japan's national purity. It goes without saying, none of these men would welcome North Korean refugees to Japan. 

The North Koreans despise these Japanese politicians not for their views on Pyongyang's human rights violations, but for their simple racist views toward Koreans and Chinese. Here is where both Seoul and Beijing agree with the North Koreans. It is odd that American politicians would seek the support of Japanese who so anger our top allies helping us restrain North Korea.

The unfortunate fact is that these Japanese conservative nationalists have "abducted" the abductees families for their own political goals. Human rights are less their interest than proving that Japan has enemies, that these enemies are Korean and Chinese, and that previous politicians in Japan were simply too soft--softened by the America imposed pacifist constitution and the  masochistic history--to defend Japan properly.

Gosh, sorry, that was a mouthful. Maybe later, I will share some quotes from these guys. If I have the time and if anyone cares.

Filling Air Space

Japanese Air Self-Defense Force fighter jets scrambled against foreign airplanes flying too near Japanese air space 237 times in fiscal year 2008 that ended in March. This was 70 times fewer than the previous year, said Self-Defense Forces Chief of Staff General Ryoichi Oriki during a news conference on April 23rd. He noted that Russian incursions dropped to 193 from 253, and Chinese incursions to 31 from 43. 

ASDF scrambles were close to 230 in both fiscal years 2005 and 2006 before jumping to 307 in fiscal year 2007. Thus, the latest figure is a return to average/normal.

It might be interesting to note that General Toshio Tamogami was head of the ASDF from March 2007-November 2008. The General is best remembered for his strong views on history and warnings about the Chinese threat. He was fired on October 31, 2008 for writing a contest essay asserting that the US was the aggressor in WWII and Japan the victim.

General Tamogami was in command of the ASDF through fiscal year 2007 (April 2007-March 2008), which saw the greatest number of Japanese scrambles. He was, however, only in charge through half of fiscal year 2008 (April 2008-March 2009).

As I only know what I read, in English, I am not aware if charts and graphs were presented at the Thursday briefing. It would be interesting to see the number of foreign plane incursions graphed by month.

Many factors can contribute to an increase or decrease in foreign probes of Japan’s air space, with weather being one of them. Yet, I am curious if the number of scrambles against Chinese and Russian planes began to drop beginning in November 2008. But what do I know, I'm just a girl.

Band Concert

Last night was my daughter's band concert. Her school makes all the children learn French, Latin, and an instrument. They also have to sing, act, and take religion. Faced by many demands, the young musicians are not always practiced or harmonious. Despite the often jarring noise, the parents in the audience are always pleased. This is very much like today's LDP.

Over the weekend, former Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said that Japan should consider possessing nuclear weapons as a response to North Korea's missile test. He reportedly said "It is common sense worldwide that in pure military terms, nuclear counters nuclear." The headline in the Japan Times read, Nakagawa Floats Sobering Option: Going Nuclear...[ha, ha]

This of course prompted the Aso government to issue a quick rejection of Japan ever going nuclear.  Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura said “It is clear that nuclearization is not an option.” Kawamura told reporters “Japan’s policy has always been the three non-nuclear principles of no production, no introduction and no possession.” 

Back in Washington, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a cast of many of his former foreign policy advisers such as Shotaro Yachi (who is now advising Aso)  were making the rounds in Washington. One memorable stop was a meeting  with Vice President Joe Biden to deliver a letter from Prime Minister Aso giving support for President Obama's desire to eliminate nuclear weapons.

Abe used the meeting to remind Biden that Japan was the only nation to experience the effects of nuclear weapons. It was not lost on those present that the hint was for Obama to visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki and apologize. And maybe that would also be the quid pro quo for the Emperor's visit to Pearl Harbor.

Returning to Tokyo, Abe continued on this nationalist bent (according to Observing Japan). He addressed Ichita Yamamoto's study group for "thinking about strengthening Japan's deterrent capabilities against North Korea."  Abe was decidedly supportive and emphasized that Japan needed both the technological capabilities and legal mandate to strike back  at Pyongyang. In addition, he added, these independent abilities would just strengthen the US-Japan Alliance. 

As the band members in my daughter's class, the LDP's politicians are reading the same music just with differing abilities. Being first flute, does not necessarily mean that you are good, only that you are the best they got. For now, Aso and Abe are the best the LDP got. And my daughter is first flute.

In Absentia

Joe Nye, Harvard professor, Chairman of Pacific Forum CSIS, and much-rumored next US ambassador to Japan, was unable to attend the Third US-Japan Sea Power Dialogue or its companion public conference last week.

Instead, he had distributed a page and a half of his thoughts. He began,

As Richard Armitage and I  noted in the second Armitage-Nye report..."Asia is key to a stable, prosperous world order that best advances American interests." I have long believed, like all of you here today, that the future of the US "requires a robust, dynamic relationship with the new Asia of 2020, and the keystone of the United States' position in remains the US-Japan alliance."

He then goes on to cite the importance of "smart power" and cooperation for today's new transnational challenges. And he concludes that the US and Japan have a "special role to play" in securing regional peace and leading a consortium of seafaring nations bound by shared values.

Nye is indeed the Democratic yang to Dick Armtiage's Republican yin.

Abe Shinzo Returns

Asahi Shimbun's Washington reporter Yoichi Kato clapped enthusiastically along with Sankei Shimbun's Washington eminence grise Yoshihisa Komori. They joined the others in the packed auditorium at Brookings applauding Shinzo Abe's speech, A New Era Requires a New Political Will.

Surely, the former prime minister knows a lot about "political will." 

Strobe Talbot, Brookings' president, introduced Abe as a "statesman of great stature" and a "voice of experience and wisdom."

Abe then said all the things an Alliance manager yearned to hear (or wrote to be read aloud). He was decidedly internationalist and emphasized how Japan was working to be a responsible international partner. Japan would learn from its past mistakes, appreciate what has been done for it, and contribute more to the global community.

He began his speech with an appreciation of the work of American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was contrite about Japan having not listened to American's financial advice during Japan's 'Lost Decade.'

He touted his accomplishments with better relations with China, with promoting the environment, and emphasizing innovation for tomorrow's Japan. He was all about "I." He was the innovator and risk taker; he was the one who knew what needed to be done:

I was the one who made a fence-mending trip from Japan to China. Indeed, Beijing was the destination I chose to visit first as Prime Minister. I can now admit it was fun to disappoint those pundits who had argued for some time, that Shinzo Abe, as Prime Minister, would damage Japan-China relations. On the contrary, my trip laid the foundation for a bilateral relationship that is win-win for both sides. The Japanese and the Chinese are now enriching what we call our "mutually-beneficial strategic relationship." I think that I did a job that was vital because as I said just now, China must work with us. 

And he spoke, as he always has, of the importance of statesmen who had the will to transcend the people's short term comforts for a greater vision:

In democracies, statesmen are a critical part of the system. They hear the vox populi, and do what ought to be done, though it may be bitter, rather than easy to digest. Therefore, the strong wills of the statesmen count most. That is what I tell myself, every day when I wake up

So ended Abe's speech. He took questions and showed a bit more of his dogmatic side when talking about the abductees or China's military build up.

In all, Abe left the crowd wondering if the failed prince was running for prime minister again. If so, why is the campaign starting in Washington? Would his gracious carefully choreographed reception by Americans help impress the voters back home? 

Unlikely.

NB: If I can find the time I will relate more on the rest of Abe's week.

Assigned Reading

Vice Admiral William Douglas Crowder, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Information, Plans and Strategy (N3/N5) gave the luncheon address on Friday at a Japanese-funded Washington conference on an/the US-Japan maritime alliance. He quoted heavily from a new book by George Friedman,  The Next Hundred Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century.  

Next time, the Admiral might want to read the book before he makes it the focus of a speech.

It is, however, easy to see why the Admiral's speechwriter wanted to use quotes from the book. Dr. Friedman contends that it is through the dominance of the seas that the US will maintain its security and prominence. Naval power and naval alliances will secure the peace for the next century.

This is indeed a confirming message to a conference about forging an alliance of "like-minded" maritime nations, especially with Japan.  And Friedman is a well-known purveyor of open source intelligence, consultant to the Pentagon, and prognosticator. His book was on a best-seller list.

The speechwriter, however, might have been wise to read deeper into the Friedman book*. If so, he would have found out why the US is destined to rule the seas. 

Friedman predicts that by 2050 the US and Poland will go to war against Japan and Turkey. Japan, instead of accepting immigrants, will turn to expansion for growth and labor. Once again Japan will take advantage of China disintegrating. Japan will retake China's coastal regions for labor and resources. Turkey apparently will benefit from a similar implosion of the politics and economy in Russia.

Fearing that the US will check its expansion, Japan will initiate on Thanksgiving Day a surprise attack that cripples US Space Forces (we will have 3 manned Battle Stars by then).  Their Turkish allies will invade Poland, the other power, to take parts of Russia and are barely held back by the Poles. The Turks then persuade the Germans to invade Poland from the west but are startled when Britain enters the war by attacking Germany. The US-Polish-British team, through sea and space power, wins. The US establishes itself as the dominant world power and peace breaks out.  I am sure I missed a lot, for I understand that Mexico becomes a world power, and we go to war with them again.

I cannot properly recall the scenario, but the US going to war with Japan over resources and sea lanes is similar to Dr. Friedman's first popular book, The Coming War With Japan (1991). 

So I sat through the speech, cursing myself for not getting more of those good cookies from the buffet (The Willard has nice desserts) and wondering what exactly was the message that the Admiral was trying to convey.

Admiral Crowder began his speech with how lucky he was that his father was one of the few survivors of the sinking of the USS Evans during the battle of Okinawa. The story of the USS Evans enduring Kamikaze attacks is legendary in the US Navy. He pointed to his Japanese counterpart in the audience and said that he too was there because his father survived the sinking of his ship, but instead by US planes. But now, the US and Japan are "partners and friends."

That is, until the next war.

*Now my friend at Japan Without the Sugar is going to give me hell for this, but I have not actually read Mr. Friedman's new book (nor do I have the time to waste). I have only read the reviews and his first book on Japan. So like Mr. Sato of the Japan Times, I am winging this. But in Washington there is a time-honored tradition of not reading books, except for the dust jackets and depending on the comments of the one or two people who actually do read. Most important, you need to first check the index of any new book to see if you are mentioned. If not, the book is definitely not worth much more of your time.